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Market Forecasts 2026 Up and Down
Hello , long time no talk, it's Bill Coughlin from the Vancouver Market Reports
....bringing you the Real Estate Market Forecasts for 2026. For 43 years, I have been helping Realtors by forecasting real estate market changes with 99.4% accuracy. This time, I give you both Positive and Negative Forecasts.
🌦️ What’s Ahead for 2026?
The biggest question today:
Are prices going up 5%… or will they slide 15% more?
🎥 New VMR Market Forecast Video
Watch my full VMR December 2025 Market Report, with both:
- The positive forecast — why the market could go up 5% in 2026
- The negative forecast — why the market could go down 15% in 2026
Part 2 Join the Dec 16, 2025 update with Adrian Spitters on new solutions to boost bank liquidity and unlock more financing — join the list now!
This year marks the slowest real estate market in 43 years, and the key to understanding the future is the STR — the Sell-Through Rate: how many homes sell out of every 100 for sale?
We need 10–15% STR to be stable. This report is for single-family detached homes
Right now, across the Lower Mainland:
- Vancouver STR: 6–9%
- Fraser Valley STR: 8–9%
- Record Strong City: North Vancouver with a 17% Sell-Through Rate
- Record Slowest City: West Surrey at 5% STR — meaning 95% of homes did NOT sell
Home prices in many cities, like Abbotsford, are down about 30% from the peak. This is a very different market than last year.
📉 What 2025 Has Taught Us
2025 Reality:
- STR levels remain far below normal
- Prices continue to slide $10,000–$20,000 per month in many cities
- Nearly 22,000 Realtors are chasing under 900 house sales per month
- Inventory stays near record highs, and sales remain very low
Canada’s 2025 Economic Journey
Inflation
Inflation has come down from 2024, but government deficits, carbon taxes industries, and tariffs keep costs stubbornly high.
Interest Rates
The Bank of Canada cut the Overnight Rate by 0.75% in 2025, but mortgage rates have not fallen very much.
Today’s Rates:
- Prime Rate: 6.50–6.75%
- 5-Year Fixed Mortgages: 4.0–5.39%
These rates are far higher than what many buyers were stress-tested for.
⚠️ Trade Pressures — A Growing Threat
China and U.S. tariffs are hitting Canada hard.
Factories are slowing down, some are closing, and others are moving production south. This puts pressure on jobs and directly impacts housing demand.
🏦 Banks Are Tightening Lending
This year, lending conditions changed quickly:
- Banks fear another 10–15% drop in home prices
- Construction lending has almost stopped
- Many homeowners cannot refinance, even with strong income
This tightening is pushing some sellers toward forced sales, which adds downward pressure.
🔑 STR — Your Key Market Predictor
As I teach every month on VMR:
The Sell-Through Rate lets you see the market 30–60 days ahead.
The Simple Rule:
- 15% STR → Stable market
- Below 10% STR → Prices fall $10,000–$20,000 per month
- Above 20% STR → Prices rise $10,000–$20,000 per month
We are well below the stability zone.
🟦 Forecast for 2026 — Up +5% or Down −15%
Based on today’s pressures:
- Job losses
- High immigration + high unemployment
- Slow interest-rate cuts
- Tight bank lending
- Tariff pressure from the U.S. & China
I forecast the market will respond to government action — or inaction.
But there ARE opportunities. Homes that didn’t sell in the last 6–12 months have sharpened their prices, and investors are finding excellent cash-flow deals — the best since the 1980s.
📌 What This Means for You, %%
If You’re Buying
- Real deals are available
- Cash-Flowing Condos: First time in 35 years: condos renting for MORE than the mortgage payment — paying off an entire mortgage in 9.5 years.
Example: a $260,000 condo rents for $2,100/month.
With 50% financing ($130,000 mortgage) at a 3.75% variable rate, payments are about $666.32 + taxes/strata (~$550) — meaning the rent pays off the mortgage in 9.5 years.
- Motivated sellers
- Strong negotiation power
If You’re Selling
It’s all relative — prices are falling, but so are the prices of what you are buying.
Correct pricing is essential.
My VMR marketing system — STR exposure, narrated movies, and Vancouver all-cash buyers — still creates multiple offers. I actually perform best in slow markets because extra service creates the advantage.
Our clients are winning because we provide:
- Massive exposure to cash buyers through Vancouver Market Reports (17.3M views, 99.4% accuracy)
- Professionally narrated movies selling the Dream of “Why We Love Living Here”
- A perfected Auction Marketing System creating bidding wars and top-of-market prices
If You’re Investing
Condos in Abbotsford and the Fraser Valley are now cash-flow positive, paying off mortgages in under **10 years** — the best investor opportunity in decades.
📉 Inventory Still High
- Many listings from the past year did not sell
- Sellers are adjusting
- Buyers are watching STR closely every week
This is the first “normal planning market” we've had in years — no foreign-capital surges, no COVID disruptions, no bidding-war frenzy. Just real data and real opportunities.
📉 How Auction Marketing has set the Most High-Priced Sales Records in 2025
That’s where Auction Marketing System shines.
🔥 1. Create Extreme Buyer Demand
Instead of waiting for buyers, we bring them in by the dozens through:
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Our narrated marketing lifestyle videos, “Why We Love Living Here”
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Our VancouverMarketReports.com buyer database with it's 17 million-view forecasting audience
This turns one buyer into 10 buyers.
🔥 2. Price It Right — Below the “Pain Line”
We price it right, based on real data.
A sharp price creates fear of missing out, which pulls in far more buyers than a “Wishful: High ASKING Price.”
- More buyers = more offers = more money.
🔥 3. Set the Show and Offer Day — And Let the Market Compete
Once all the buyers show up in the 2 hr showing window, excitement builds
“I don’t want you to be in the 90% that fail to sell…
I want you in the 10% that DO…
or better yet, the top 2% that sell in a bidding war.”
🔥 4. Negotiate With Power — You Hold All the Cards
With multiple buyers:
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Dates become flexible
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Conditions shrink
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Offers clean-up
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Prices rise
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Cash buyers appear
🔥 5. The Seller Wins — With More Money in Their Pocket
Bottom line:
Old Marketing = 1 buyer ..LOW offer
Auction Marketing = 10 buyers .. Prices rise to "Fair Price".
- One buyer negotiates down.
- Ten buyers negotiate up.
That difference is often an extra $50,000 to $150,000 — sometimes more.
🌟 Final Word
2026 is a year of strategy, not panic.
I’m here to help you read the market — and win.
, You are invited to learn from the
Real Estate Marketing Trailblazer's 1,000 Secrets.
Thanks for your time!
Bill Coughlin eXp Realty 778-374-3744
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